Seattleites may not know it, but their city has become a proxy battlefield in Ontario’s ongoing minimum wage wars.

Just before Canada Day, 40 left-leaning economists signed an open letter supporting the Liberal government’s move to raise Ontario’s minimum wage to $15 by 2019. They noted that, in Seattle, where the minimum wage increased from $11 to $13 last year on the road to $15 for some large employers starting this year, “none of the doom-and-gloom predictions have come true.”

But not so fast, say critics: a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research says the raise costs employees hours worked to the tune of $125 per month. That paper followed an earlier one that found the Seattle increase had a small but positive effect on wages for restaurant workers.

Confused yet?